# League v1 Report - 2026-07-05

**Status:** `success`.
**Run dir:** `/mnt/2tbhdd/coolrl-lost-cities-artifacts/league/2026-07-05_052325_jax-ppo-league-v1`.
**Final checkpoint:** `/mnt/2tbhdd/coolrl-lost-cities-artifacts/league/2026-07-05_052325_jax-ppo-league-v1/snapshots/cycle_01_update_000500`.

## Summary

- Updates: 500
- Cycles completed: 1
- Success threshold: exploiter win rate <= 0.60 and expert CI low > 0.00

## Exploiter Series

| Type | Cycle | Win rate | Mean diff | Opened colors | Max-step | Target |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
| cycle-target | 1 | 0.5022 | +0.6818 | 4.9973 | 0.0000 | `league_c01_u000250` |
| final-checkpoint | 1 | 0.4709 | -2.6378 | 4.9971 | 0.0000 | `league_c01_u000500` |

## Expert Evaluation Series

| Cycle | Update | Win rate | Mean diff | CI low | Opened colors | Max-step |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 1 | 250 | 0.7457 | +26.7149 | +26.1678 | 4.5478 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | 500 | 0.6546 | +14.2458 | +13.7563 | 4.8409 | 0.0000 |

## Final Anchor Table

| Opponent | Win rate | Mean diff | CI low | Opened colors | Max-step | Elo est. |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| `discard_only` | 0.9742 | +107.6151 | +106.9254 | 4.8845 | 0.0000 | +630.8 |
| `heuristic_balanced` | 0.9617 | +88.5699 | +87.8946 | 4.9300 | 0.0271 | +560.2 |
| `heuristic_cautious` | 0.9323 | +94.1284 | +93.3256 | 4.9832 | 0.1645 | +455.4 |
| `heuristic_expert` | 0.6546 | +14.2458 | +13.7563 | 4.8409 | 0.0000 | +111.1 |
| `ladder_v2_gate1_discard` | 0.9808 | +141.3215 | +140.4737 | 4.9991 | 0.0419 | +683.8 |
| `ladder_v2_gate2_balanced` | 0.6645 | +20.6296 | +19.9998 | 4.9362 | 0.0001 | +118.7 |
| `ladder_v2_gate3_expert` | 0.7894 | +38.9629 | +38.2914 | 4.9691 | 0.0001 | +229.5 |
| `league_c01_u000250` | 0.5433 | +5.5848 | +4.9333 | 4.9455 | 0.0001 | +30.2 |

## Plots

- `docs/reports/league-v1-exploiter-win-rate.png`
- `docs/reports/league-v1-opened-colors.png`
- `docs/reports/league-v1-elo-estimate.png`

## Hypothesis Read

부분 지지: 피탈률 목표는 한 사이클 만에 달성했다. 다만 expert 상대 오픈 색은 4.55에서 4.84로 증가해, 적대적 압력이 selectivity를 유도한다는 하위 가설은 아직 지지되지 않는다.

## Decisions

- Training uses a PFSP active subset when the pool exceeds `max_active_pool_members=12`. The full pool is retained for lifecycle and evaluation; the subset keeps single-GPU cycle time within budget.
- Stalling anchors are capped between the configured floor and cap during PFSP sampling.
