# Gates 1-2 Report - 2026-07-05

**Run dir:** `/mnt/2tbhdd/coolrl-lost-cities-artifacts/gates-1-2/2026-07-05_094238_gates-1-2`.
**Target:** `/mnt/2tbhdd/coolrl-lost-cities-artifacts/league/2026-07-05_052325_jax-ppo-league-v1/snapshots/cycle_01_update_000500`.

## Gate 1A - Policy Class Tournament

| Learner | Opponent | Win rate | Mean diff | CI low | Opened colors | Max-step |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| `expert_cap2` | `expert_cap3` | 0.4415 | -1.8933 | -2.3662 | 1.7792 | 0.0000 |
| `expert_cap2` | `expert_capN` | 0.4445 | -1.8807 | -2.3545 | 1.7815 | 0.0000 |
| `expert_cap3` | `expert_capN` | 0.4840 | +0.0285 | -0.4689 | 2.2153 | 0.0000 |

## Gate 1A - Variants vs League v1

| Learner | Opponent | Win rate | Mean diff | CI low | Opened colors | Max-step |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| `expert_cap2` | `league_v1_update_500` | 0.2725 | -20.8863 | -21.9846 | 1.9735 | 0.0003 |
| `expert_cap3` | `league_v1_update_500` | 0.3400 | -14.3513 | -15.4459 | 2.7385 | 0.0000 |
| `expert_capN` | `league_v1_update_500` | 0.3415 | -13.9670 | -15.0543 | 3.0040 | 0.0000 |

## Gate 1B - Delta Open Audit

- States: 500
- Paired samples: 32000
- Mean delta: +0.0138
- CI95: [-0.3283, +0.3559]
- Judgment: `near_zero`
- Histogram: `docs/reports/gates-1-2-delta-open-hist.png`

## Gate 1C - Selectivity Judgment

통념 기각/미결: capN은 집중 변형보다 유의하게 나쁘지 않고, 리그 정책의 4번째+ 오픈 delta는 0 근처다. selectivity는 현재 주요 성능 병목으로 보이지 않는다.

## Gate 2A - Strengthened Exploiter Battery

| Exploiter | Win rate | Mean diff | CI low | Opened colors | Max-step | Run |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
| `long_random` | 0.5870 | +10.9512 | +9.4790 | 4.9958 | 0.0000 | `/mnt/2tbhdd/coolrl-lost-cities-artifacts/gates-1-2/2026-07-05_094238_gates-1-2/exploiters/2026-07-05_094311_gates-1-2-long-random-exploiter` |
| `warmstart_gate3` | 0.5900 | +11.3808 | +9.8893 | 4.9945 | 0.0000 | `/mnt/2tbhdd/coolrl-lost-cities-artifacts/gates-1-2/2026-07-05_094238_gates-1-2/exploiters/2026-07-05_105902_gates-1-2-warmstart-gate3-exploiter` |
| `replay_exploiter` | 0.5820 | +10.4253 | +8.9368 | 4.9977 | 0.0000 | `/mnt/2tbhdd/coolrl-lost-cities-artifacts/gates-1-2/2026-07-05_094238_gates-1-2/exploiters/2026-07-05_115602_gates-1-2-replay-exploiter` |

## Gate 2B - Robustness Judgment

보수 필요: worst exploiter `warmstart_gate3` win rate 0.5900 vs threshold 0.5500.

## Gate 2C - Conditional Repair League

| Cycle | Worst protocol used | Guard pass | Battery worst | Passed | Checkpoint |
| ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
| 1 | `warmstart_gate3` | True | 0.5490 | True | `/mnt/2tbhdd/coolrl-lost-cities-artifacts/gates-1-2/2026-07-05_094238_gates-1-2/gate2c/league/2026-07-05_125709_jax-ppo-gates-1-2-repair-c01/snapshots/cycle_01_update_000500` |

| Cycle | Exploiter | Win rate | Mean diff | CI low | Opened colors | Max-step |
| ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 1 | `long_random` | 0.5390 | +6.2793 | +4.7919 | 4.9943 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | `warmstart_gate3` | 0.5490 | +7.0285 | +5.5662 | 4.9935 | 0.0000 |
| 1 | `replay_exploiter` | 0.5393 | +6.1022 | +4.6214 | 4.9943 | 0.0000 |

## Human Play Recommendation

조건부 예: 강화 exploiter 관문은 통과했다. 다만 selectivity 관문이 미결/부분 지지이면 인간 대전은 실력 인증이 아니라 행동 양식 진단으로 시작해야 한다.

## Decisions

- Existing `heuristic_expert` remains unchanged. The cap variants add only a hard `max_open_colors` gate around new-color openings.
- `expert_capN` means no hard cap; EV thresholds and the existing soft concentration penalties are retained.
- Warm-started exploiters use shaping coefficient 0 to measure target-specific exploitation without reintroducing early shaping rewards.
