Rename bot family, curate analyze plots, tier evaluation cadence

Three coordinated hygiene changes; none target the diagnosed
selection-bias bottleneck. They make the codebase honestly reflect the
pure-self-play stance and reduce dashboard noise.

Bot rename (drop the unhelpful safe_ prefix; suffixes describe behaviour):
- safe_heuristic_loose -> heuristic_aggressive
- safe_heuristic       -> heuristic_balanced
- safe_heuristic_strict -> heuristic_cautious
- noisy_safe           -> heuristic_noisy
- passive_discard      -> discard_only

Class renames in bots/: SafeHeuristicBot -> HeuristicBot,
SafeHeuristicParams -> HeuristicParams, PassiveDiscardBot -> DiscardOnlyBot,
plus loose/strict parameter constants. Backwards compatibility was dropped
intentionally per user instruction; no aliases. Active configs, docs,
scripts, tests updated. Archive directories (configs/archive,
docs/archive, runs/archive) left intact and may still reference old
names per their read-only policy. The src/.../bots/passive.py module was
renamed to discard_only.py via git mv.

Analyze plot curation (deep_cfr/analyze.py):
- Added analysis_00_core.png as the canonical daily dashboard with 10
  heuristic-free metrics (loss/{advantage,strategy}; vs heuristic_cautious:
  avg_score_diff0, win_rate0, avg_opened_colors, positive_expedition_rate,
  bonus_expedition_rate, score_per_opened_color, policy_entropy; vs random:
  win_rate0).
- Removed analysis_05_open_quality.png (bad/weak/good open rates,
  recoverable score) and analysis_07_calibration.png (calibration gap,
  recoverable mean) - both relied on the heuristic recoverable_score
  classifier already dropped from inputs.
- Removed SELECTIVITY_PLOTS and plot_selectivity (heuristic-laden).
- SUMMARY_EVAL_METRICS no longer includes bad_open_rate or
  calibration_gap.
- PlotSpec gained an opponents allowlist so the new core section can pin
  a specific opponent per panel without restructuring plot_section.

Tiered evaluation cadence (EvaluationConfig):
- Added extended_opponents and extended_eval_every (default 0 = disabled).
- opponents_for_iteration(iteration) returns the core list every
  eval_every and appends extended_opponents (de-duplicated) when
  iteration is also a multiple of extended_eval_every.
- default.yaml now uses 3 core opponents (random, discard_only,
  heuristic_cautious) every 5 iterations and 3 extended opponents
  (heuristic_balanced, heuristic_aggressive, heuristic_noisy) every 50
  iterations. random is the floor sanity. discard_only is the
  zero-pit detector / absolute-score reference (its score is always 0,
  so eval/discard_only/avg_score_diff0 directly equals the model's raw
  average score). heuristic_cautious is the ceiling and the
  archive-comparable benchmark used in the prior diagnostic sections.

Net eval cost reduction: roughly 50% (3 opponents x every 5 iter, plus
6 opponents x every 50 iter, vs the prior 6 x every 5).

Documented in docs/plans/deep-cfr-selectivity.md section 9.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

tests/games/classic/test_bots.py

@@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
 from coolrl_lost_cities.games.classic.game import Card, GameState, LostCitiesConfig
 
 from coolrl_lost_cities.games.classic.bots import (
+    HeuristicBot,
     LostCitiesPolicy,
     RandomBot,
-    SafeHeuristicBot,
 )
 from coolrl_lost_cities.games.classic.bots.heuristic import draw_from_discard_action
 from coolrl_lost_cities.games.classic.evaluation import play_game_for_evaluation
@@ -19,13 +19,13 @@ def _expeditions(config: LostCitiesConfig) -> list[list[list[Card]]]:
 
 def test_builtin_bots_implement_lost_cities_policy() -> None:
     assert isinstance(RandomBot(1), LostCitiesPolicy)
-    assert isinstance(SafeHeuristicBot(), LostCitiesPolicy)
+    assert isinstance(HeuristicBot(), LostCitiesPolicy)
 
 
-def test_safe_heuristic_mirror_match_finishes() -> None:
+def test_heuristic_mirror_match_finishes() -> None:
     state, result = play_game_for_evaluation(
-        SafeHeuristicBot(),
-        SafeHeuristicBot(),
+        HeuristicBot(),
+        HeuristicBot(),
         LostCitiesConfig(n_colors=3, n_ranks=5, n_handshakes=1, hand_size=5),
         seed=2000,
         max_steps=200,
@@ -34,9 +34,9 @@ def test_safe_heuristic_mirror_match_finishes() -> None:
     assert result.timed_out is False
 
 
-def test_safe_heuristic_opponent_value_ignores_hidden_hand() -> None:
+def test_heuristic_opponent_value_ignores_hidden_hand() -> None:
     config = LostCitiesConfig(n_colors=2, n_ranks=8, hand_size=3)
-    bot = SafeHeuristicBot()
+    bot = HeuristicBot()
     discard_card = Card(color=0, rank=6)
 
     expeditions_a = _expeditions(config)
@@ -76,9 +76,9 @@ def test_safe_heuristic_opponent_value_ignores_hidden_hand() -> None:
     assert value_a == value_b
 
 
-def test_safe_heuristic_started_expedition_value_ignores_invalid_lower_followup() -> None:
+def test_heuristic_started_expedition_value_ignores_invalid_lower_followup() -> None:
     config = LostCitiesConfig(n_colors=2, n_ranks=8, hand_size=3)
-    bot = SafeHeuristicBot()
+    bot = HeuristicBot()
     high_card = Card(color=0, rank=8)
 
     base_expeditions = _expeditions(config)
@@ -115,9 +115,9 @@ def test_safe_heuristic_started_expedition_value_ignores_invalid_lower_followup(
     assert lower_followup_value == base_value
 
 
-def test_safe_heuristic_draws_playable_discard_instead_of_deck() -> None:
+def test_heuristic_draws_playable_discard_instead_of_deck() -> None:
     config = LostCitiesConfig(n_colors=2, n_ranks=8, hand_size=3)
-    bot = SafeHeuristicBot()
+    bot = HeuristicBot()
 
     expeditions = _expeditions(config)
     expeditions[0][0] = [Card(color=0, rank=4)]
@@ -132,9 +132,9 @@ def test_safe_heuristic_draws_playable_discard_instead_of_deck() -> None:
     assert bot._act_draw(state) == draw_from_discard_action(0)
 
 
-def test_safe_heuristic_can_draw_discard_to_deny_opponent_when_losing() -> None:
+def test_heuristic_can_draw_discard_to_deny_opponent_when_losing() -> None:
     config = LostCitiesConfig(n_colors=2, n_ranks=8, hand_size=4)
-    bot = SafeHeuristicBot()
+    bot = HeuristicBot()
 
     expeditions = _expeditions(config)
     expeditions[0][1] = [Card(color=1, rank=8)]
@@ -158,9 +158,9 @@ def test_safe_heuristic_can_draw_discard_to_deny_opponent_when_losing() -> None:
     assert bot._act_draw(state) == draw_from_discard_action(0)
 
 
-def test_safe_heuristic_classic_self_play_opens_expeditions() -> None:
+def test_heuristic_classic_self_play_opens_expeditions() -> None:
     state = GameState.new_game(LostCitiesConfig(), seed=1)
-    bot = SafeHeuristicBot()
+    bot = HeuristicBot()
     player0_actions: list[int] = []
 
     for _ in range(60):
@@ -182,9 +182,9 @@ def test_safe_heuristic_classic_self_play_opens_expeditions() -> None:
     assert any(state.expeditions[0][color] for color in range(state.config.n_colors))
 
 
-def test_safe_heuristic_avoids_opening_weak_fifth_color() -> None:
+def test_heuristic_avoids_opening_weak_fifth_color() -> None:
     config = LostCitiesConfig(n_colors=5, n_ranks=8, hand_size=8)
-    bot = SafeHeuristicBot()
+    bot = HeuristicBot()
     expeditions = _expeditions(config)
     expeditions[0][0] = [Card(color=0, rank=4)]
     expeditions[0][1] = [Card(color=1, rank=4)]
@@ -211,9 +211,9 @@ def test_safe_heuristic_avoids_opening_weak_fifth_color() -> None:
     )
 
 
-def test_safe_heuristic_prefers_followup_on_started_expedition() -> None:
+def test_heuristic_prefers_followup_on_started_expedition() -> None:
     config = LostCitiesConfig(n_colors=3, n_ranks=8, hand_size=5)
-    bot = SafeHeuristicBot()
+    bot = HeuristicBot()
     expeditions = _expeditions(config)
     expeditions[0][0] = [Card(color=0, rank=4)]
     state = make_state(
@@ -233,9 +233,9 @@ def test_safe_heuristic_prefers_followup_on_started_expedition() -> None:
     assert chosen.color == 0
 
 
-def test_safe_heuristic_avoids_unopened_discard_draw_after_four_opens() -> None:
+def test_heuristic_avoids_unopened_discard_draw_after_four_opens() -> None:
     config = LostCitiesConfig(n_colors=5, n_ranks=8, hand_size=8)
-    bot = SafeHeuristicBot()
+    bot = HeuristicBot()
     expeditions = _expeditions(config)
     expeditions[0][0] = [Card(color=0, rank=4)]
     expeditions[0][1] = [Card(color=1, rank=4)]