Honour all_negative_fallback in interleaved scheduler; sync default.yaml

The interleaved traversal scheduler's _regret_matching was hard-coded to
spread fallback policy uniformly across legal actions, regardless of the
configured regret_matching.all_negative_fallback. default.yaml has
shipped with all_negative_fallback: argmax_tiebreak since 618d5f8 based
on the 20-iter audit + 1000-iter empirical comparison in
docs/archive/deep-cfr-regret-fallback-audit-2026-05-07.md, but the
default scheduler was switched to interleaved in 09bbe7c, after which
the configured fallback mode silently no-op'd.

_regret_matching now takes fallback_mode and concentrates policy mass on
the lowest-index tied action when "argmax_tiebreak". Tiebreak is
deterministic; the Cython recursive traverser randomises ties using its
per-traverser RNG, which the batched policy does not have. Behaviour
matches the spirit of the recursive path (concentrate on best, do not
dilute uniformly).

Plumbed through BatchedPolicy, InterleavedTraversalConfig,
run_interleaved_traversal_batch, trainer.py, workers.py, and the
analyze_first_open_targets.py caller. Two unit tests added.

Also bumps default.yaml outcome_sampling_epsilon 0.2 -> 0.05. The
200-iter sweep in docs/plans/deep-cfr-selectivity.md section 1 showed
0.05 produced the best short-run safe_heuristic_strict score diff
(-40.01 vs -57.87 for 0.20). Recent experiments already used 0.05; the
default now matches actual experimental practice.

Neither change targets the diagnosed selection-bias bottleneck. They
align config intent with scheduler behaviour and make the default config
reproduce known-best knob settings out of the box.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

configs/deep_cfr/default.yaml

@@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ traversal:
   max_depth: null
   max_nodes_per_traversal: 1000
   regret_matching_epsilon: 0.0001
-  outcome_sampling_epsilon: 0.2
+  outcome_sampling_epsilon: 0.05
   outcome_sampling_value_clip: 500.0
   outcome_unsampled_regret: zero
   cutoff_value_mode: score_diff

docs/plans/deep-cfr-selectivity.md

@@ -608,7 +608,42 @@ architecture has been run yet. Fair test deferred — the diagnosis from
 sections 4–5 (selection bias, post-open behaviour) suggests that even a
 correct color-aware encoder would not break the closed loop on its own.
 
-### 8. Short open-selectivity ablation
+### 8. Interleaved scheduler honours all_negative_fallback (2026-05-10)
+
+The interleaved traversal scheduler's `_regret_matching` was hard-coded to
+spread fallback policy uniformly across legal actions, regardless of the
+configured `regret_matching.all_negative_fallback`. The default config has
+shipped with `all_negative_fallback: argmax_tiebreak` since
+`618d5f8 Promote avg-strategy 1000iter to default.yaml` based on prior
+20-iteration audit + 1000-iteration empirical evidence (see
+`docs/archive/deep-cfr-regret-fallback-audit-2026-05-07.md`), but the
+default scheduler was switched to interleaved in `09bbe7c Make interleaved
+traversal the default`, after which the configured fallback mode silently
+no-op'd in interleaved code paths.
+
+Fix:
+
+- `_regret_matching(advantages, legal_mask, epsilon, fallback_mode="uniform")`
+  in `interleaved_traversal.py` now honours `argmax_tiebreak` by
+  concentrating policy mass on the lowest-index tied action (deterministic
+  tiebreak; the Cython recursive traverser randomises ties using its
+  per-traverser RNG, which the batched policy does not have).
+- `BatchedPolicy` accepts `fallback_mode` and threads it through.
+- `InterleavedTraversalConfig` carries `all_negative_fallback`.
+- `run_interleaved_traversal_batch`, `trainer.py`, `workers.py`, and the
+  `analyze_first_open_targets.py` callers pass the field through.
+
+Also bumped `traversal.outcome_sampling_epsilon` in `default.yaml` from
+0.2 to 0.05. The 200-iteration sweep (section 1) showed 0.05 produced the
+best short-run safe_heuristic_strict score diff (-40.01 vs -57.87 for
+0.20). All recent experimental runs already used 0.05; the default now
+matches actual experimental practice.
+
+These changes do not target the diagnosed selection-bias bottleneck. They
+align config intent with actual scheduler behaviour and make the default
+config reproduce known-best knob settings out of the box.
+
+### 9. Short open-selectivity ablation
 
 Run a 200-300 iteration ablation only after the target audit identifies a
 specific change. Candidate changes include:

scripts/analyze_first_open_targets.py

@@ -348,6 +348,7 @@ def analyze_checkpoint(
         outcome_unsampled_first_open_prior_alpha=getattr(
             cfg.traversal, "outcome_unsampled_first_open_prior_alpha", 0.0
         ),
+        all_negative_fallback=cfg.regret_matching.all_negative_fallback,
         max_depth=cfg.traversal.max_depth,
         max_nodes=cfg.traversal.max_nodes_per_traversal,
         strategy_sample_interval=cfg.traversal.strategy_sample_interval,

src/coolrl_lost_cities/games/classic/deep_cfr/interleaved_traversal.py

@@ -41,7 +41,20 @@ def _regret_matching(
     advantages: np.ndarray,
     legal_mask: np.ndarray,
     epsilon: float,
+    fallback_mode: str = "uniform",
 ) -> tuple[np.ndarray, bool, int, bool]:
+    """Compute regret-matching policy with fallback when no positive regrets.
+
+    ``fallback_mode``:
+      - ``"uniform"``: spread mass uniformly across all legal actions.
+      - ``"argmax_tiebreak"``: concentrate mass on a single best-advantage
+        action (lowest index among ties), matching the spirit of the
+        Cython recursive traverser's argmax_tiebreak fallback. Note: the
+        Cython traverser randomises the tiebreak using its per-traverser
+        RNG; the interleaved scheduler uses deterministic lowest-index
+        selection so behaviour stays reproducible without per-trajectory
+        RNG plumbing into the batched policy.
+    """
     policy = np.zeros_like(advantages, dtype=np.float32)
     legal = np.flatnonzero(legal_mask)
     positives = np.maximum(advantages[legal], 0.0)
@@ -59,6 +72,9 @@ def _regret_matching(
     tied = legal[np.flatnonzero(advantages[legal] == best)]
     tie_size = int(len(tied))
     full_tie = tie_size > 1 and tie_size == len(legal)
+    if fallback_mode == "argmax_tiebreak":
+        policy[int(tied[0])] = 1.0
+    else:
         policy[legal] = 1.0 / float(len(legal))
     return policy, fallback, tie_size, full_tie
 
@@ -179,6 +195,7 @@ class InterleavedTraversalConfig:
     outcome_sampling_value_clip: float | None
     outcome_unsampled_regret: str
     outcome_unsampled_first_open_prior_alpha: float
+    all_negative_fallback: str
     max_depth: int | None
     max_nodes: int | None
     strategy_sample_interval: int
@@ -257,12 +274,14 @@ class BatchedPolicy:
         epsilon: float,
         strategy_network: torch.nn.Module | None = None,
         deterministic: bool = False,
+        fallback_mode: str = "uniform",
     ) -> None:
         self.networks = networks
         self.strategy_network = strategy_network
         self.device = device
         self.epsilon = epsilon
         self.deterministic = deterministic
+        self.fallback_mode = fallback_mode
         self.batch_sizes: list[int] = []
         self.forward_seconds = 0.0
 
@@ -312,7 +331,10 @@ class BatchedPolicy:
                     full_tie = False
                 else:
                     policy, fallback, tie_size, full_tie = _regret_matching(
-                        values[local_idx], request.legal_mask, self.epsilon
+                        values[local_idx],
+                        request.legal_mask,
+                        self.epsilon,
+                        self.fallback_mode,
                     )
                 out[request_idx] = PolicyResult(
                     info_state=request.info_state,
@@ -704,6 +726,7 @@ def run_interleaved_traversal_batch(
     outcome_unsampled_regret: str,
     opponent_policy: str,
     outcome_unsampled_first_open_prior_alpha: float = 0.0,
+    all_negative_fallback: str = "uniform",
     endpoint_depth_bucket_width: int,
     endpoint_depth_bucket_max: int,
     seed: int,
@@ -720,6 +743,7 @@ def run_interleaved_traversal_batch(
         outcome_sampling_value_clip=outcome_sampling_value_clip,
         outcome_unsampled_regret=outcome_unsampled_regret,
         outcome_unsampled_first_open_prior_alpha=outcome_unsampled_first_open_prior_alpha,
+        all_negative_fallback=all_negative_fallback,
         max_depth=max_depth,
         max_nodes=max_nodes,
         strategy_sample_interval=strategy_sample_interval,
@@ -740,6 +764,7 @@ def run_interleaved_traversal_batch(
         epsilon=cfg.epsilon,
         strategy_network=strategy_network,
         deterministic=cfg.deterministic,
+        fallback_mode=cfg.all_negative_fallback,
     )
     scheduler = InterleavedTraversalScheduler(cfg, policy)
     _values, _rng_out, stats_rows, sample_rows, batch_sizes = scheduler.run(

src/coolrl_lost_cities/games/classic/deep_cfr/trainer.py

@@ -448,6 +448,7 @@ class DeepCFRTrainer:
                         outcome_unsampled_first_open_prior_alpha=(
                             self.config.traversal.outcome_unsampled_first_open_prior_alpha
                         ),
+                        all_negative_fallback=(self.config.regret_matching.all_negative_fallback),
                         opponent_policy=self.config.traversal.opponent_policy,
                         endpoint_depth_bucket_width=(
                             self.config.traversal.endpoint_depth_bucket_width

src/coolrl_lost_cities/games/classic/deep_cfr/workers.py

@@ -190,6 +190,7 @@ def run_traversal_worker_batch(batch: TraversalWorkerBatch) -> TraversalWorkerRe
                     outcome_unsampled_first_open_prior_alpha=(
                         cfg.traversal.outcome_unsampled_first_open_prior_alpha
                     ),
+                    all_negative_fallback=cfg.regret_matching.all_negative_fallback,
                     opponent_policy=cfg.traversal.opponent_policy,
                     endpoint_depth_bucket_width=cfg.traversal.endpoint_depth_bucket_width,
                     endpoint_depth_bucket_max=cfg.traversal.endpoint_depth_bucket_max,

tests/games/classic/test_deep_cfr_trainer.py

@@ -1455,3 +1455,42 @@ def test_first_open_prior_zero_alpha_is_noop() -> None:
     target = np.zeros(legal_mask.shape[0], dtype=np.float32)
     _apply_first_open_prior(target, state, player, legal_mask, sampled_action=0, alpha=0.0)
     assert np.all(target == 0.0)
+
+
+def test_interleaved_regret_matching_argmax_tiebreak_concentrates_on_best() -> None:
+    from coolrl_lost_cities.games.classic.deep_cfr.interleaved_traversal import _regret_matching
+
+    advantages = np.array([-1.0, -0.5, -0.5, -2.0, -0.5], dtype=np.float32)
+    legal_mask = np.array([True, True, True, True, True])
+
+    uniform_policy, fallback_u, _, _ = _regret_matching(
+        advantages, legal_mask, epsilon=1.0e-8, fallback_mode="uniform"
+    )
+    argmax_policy, fallback_a, tie_size, _ = _regret_matching(
+        advantages, legal_mask, epsilon=1.0e-8, fallback_mode="argmax_tiebreak"
+    )
+
+    assert fallback_u is True
+    assert fallback_a is True
+    assert tie_size == 3
+    assert np.allclose(uniform_policy, np.full(5, 0.2, dtype=np.float32))
+    expected_argmax = np.zeros(5, dtype=np.float32)
+    expected_argmax[1] = 1.0
+    assert np.allclose(argmax_policy, expected_argmax)
+
+
+def test_interleaved_regret_matching_no_fallback_unchanged_by_mode() -> None:
+    from coolrl_lost_cities.games.classic.deep_cfr.interleaved_traversal import _regret_matching
+
+    advantages = np.array([1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0], dtype=np.float32)
+    legal_mask = np.array([True, True, True, True])
+    policy_uniform, fallback_u, _, _ = _regret_matching(
+        advantages, legal_mask, epsilon=1.0e-8, fallback_mode="uniform"
+    )
+    policy_argmax, fallback_a, _, _ = _regret_matching(
+        advantages, legal_mask, epsilon=1.0e-8, fallback_mode="argmax_tiebreak"
+    )
+    assert fallback_u is False
+    assert fallback_a is False
+    assert np.allclose(policy_uniform, policy_argmax)
+    assert np.allclose(policy_uniform.sum(), 1.0)