diff --git a/scripts/analyze_first_open_advantage.py b/scripts/analyze_first_open_advantage.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..fbbd259
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/analyze_first_open_advantage.py
@@ -0,0 +1,263 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python
+"""Analyze current-network advantages on first-open action candidates."""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import json
+from collections import defaultdict
+from dataclasses import dataclass, field
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import numpy as np
+import torch
+from coolrl_lost_cities.games.classic.deep_cfr.encoding import encode_info_state
+from coolrl_lost_cities.games.classic.game import GameState, LostCitiesConfig
+
+from coolrl_lost_cities.games.classic.bots import build_bot
+from coolrl_lost_cities.games.classic.deep_cfr.config import config_from_dict
+from coolrl_lost_cities.games.classic.deep_cfr.networks import DeepCFRMLP
+
+
+@dataclass
+class BucketStats:
+    values: list[float] = field(default_factory=list)
+    policy_probs: list[float] = field(default_factory=list)
+    selected: int = 0
+
+    def add(self, value: float, policy_prob: float, *, selected: bool) -> None:
+        self.values.append(float(value))
+        self.policy_probs.append(float(policy_prob))
+        self.selected += int(selected)
+
+    def to_dict(self) -> dict[str, float | int]:
+        return {
+            "count": len(self.values),
+            "adv_mean": _mean(self.values),
+            "adv_p25": _percentile(self.values, 25),
+            "adv_p50": _percentile(self.values, 50),
+            "adv_p75": _percentile(self.values, 75),
+            "policy_prob_mean": _mean(self.policy_probs),
+            "selected": self.selected,
+            "selected_rate": self.selected / max(1, len(self.values)),
+        }
+
+
+def _mean(values: list[float]) -> float:
+    return float(np.mean(values)) if values else 0.0
+
+
+def _percentile(values: list[float], percentile: float) -> float:
+    return float(np.percentile(values, percentile)) if values else 0.0
+
+
+def _numeric_value(card, min_rank: int) -> int:
+    if card.rank == 0:
+        return 0
+    return min_rank + card.rank - 1
+
+
+def _open_quality(state: GameState, player: int, color: int) -> str:
+    expedition = state.expeditions[player][color]
+    hand_cards = [
+        card for card in state.hand_slots(player) if card is not None and card.color == color
+    ]
+    last_numeric = state.last_numeric_rank(player, color)
+    current_sum = sum(_numeric_value(card, state.config.min_rank) for card in expedition)
+    current_wagers = sum(1 for card in expedition if card.rank == 0)
+    playable_numeric = [card for card in hand_cards if card.rank > 0 and card.rank > last_numeric]
+    playable_wagers = [card for card in hand_cards if card.rank == 0 and last_numeric == 0]
+    projected_sum = current_sum + sum(
+        _numeric_value(card, state.config.min_rank) for card in playable_numeric
+    )
+    projected_wagers = current_wagers + len(playable_wagers)
+    projected_len = len(expedition) + len(playable_numeric) + len(playable_wagers)
+    recoverable_score = (projected_sum + state.config.expedition_penalty) * (projected_wagers + 1)
+    if recoverable_score >= 0:
+        return "open_good"
+    if projected_len >= state.config.bonus_threshold:
+        return "open_weak"
+    return "open_bad"
+
+
+def _regret_matching(
+    advantages: np.ndarray,
+    legal: np.ndarray,
+    *,
+    epsilon: float,
+    fallback: str,
+) -> np.ndarray:
+    legal_actions = np.flatnonzero(legal)
+    positive = np.where(legal, np.maximum(advantages, 0.0), 0.0).astype(np.float32)
+    total = float(positive.sum())
+    if total > epsilon:
+        return positive / total
+    policy = np.zeros_like(advantages, dtype=np.float32)
+    if len(legal_actions) == 0:
+        return policy
+    if fallback == "uniform":
+        policy[legal_actions] = 1.0 / float(len(legal_actions))
+        return policy
+    best = float(np.max(advantages[legal_actions]))
+    best_actions = legal_actions[advantages[legal_actions] == best]
+    policy[int(best_actions[0])] = 1.0
+    return policy
+
+
+def _classify_unified_action(state: GameState, unified_action: int, player: int) -> str:
+    card_action_size = state.config.hand_size * 2
+    if unified_action >= card_action_size:
+        return "draw_deck" if unified_action == card_action_size else "draw_pile"
+    if unified_action % 2 == 1:
+        return "discard"
+    hand = state.hand_slots(player)
+    card = hand[unified_action // 2]
+    if card is None:
+        return "invalid_play"
+    color = int(card.color)
+    if state.expeditions[player][color]:
+        return "play_existing"
+    return _open_quality(state, player, color)
+
+
+def _select_current_action(
+    advantages: np.ndarray,
+    legal: np.ndarray,
+    *,
+    epsilon: float,
+    fallback: str,
+) -> tuple[int, np.ndarray]:
+    policy = _regret_matching(advantages, legal, epsilon=epsilon, fallback=fallback)
+    legal_actions = np.flatnonzero(legal)
+    if len(legal_actions) == 0:
+        raise RuntimeError("no legal action available")
+    return int(legal_actions[int(np.argmax(policy[legal_actions]))]), policy
+
+
+def load_checkpoint_networks(checkpoint: Path, device: torch.device | str):
+    payload = torch.load(checkpoint, map_location="cpu")
+    cfg = config_from_dict(payload["config"])
+    game_config = LostCitiesConfig(**payload["game_config"])
+    input_dim = int(payload["input_dim"])
+    action_size = int(payload["action_size"])
+    networks = [
+        DeepCFRMLP.from_config(input_dim, action_size, cfg.network).to(device) for _ in range(2)
+    ]
+    for network, state_dict in zip(networks, payload["advantage_networks"], strict=True):
+        network.load_state_dict(state_dict)
+        network.eval()
+    return cfg, game_config, networks
+
+
+def analyze_checkpoint(
+    checkpoint: Path,
+    *,
+    games: int,
+    seed: int,
+    opponent: str,
+    device: torch.device | str,
+    max_steps: int,
+) -> dict:
+    cfg, game_config, networks = load_checkpoint_networks(checkpoint, device)
+    buckets: dict[str, BucketStats] = defaultdict(BucketStats)
+    selected_buckets: dict[str, int] = defaultdict(int)
+    candidate_states = 0
+    first_open_candidates = 0
+    policy_turns = 0
+
+    for game_index in range(games):
+        game_seed = seed + game_index
+        swap = game_index % 2 == 1
+        policy_player = 1 if swap else 0
+        opponent_policy = build_bot(opponent, seed=game_seed * 2 + (1 - policy_player))
+        state = GameState.new_game(game_config, seed=game_seed)
+        for _step in range(max_steps):
+            if state.terminal:
+                break
+            player = int(state.current_player)
+            if player != policy_player:
+                state.apply_action(opponent_policy.act(state))
+                continue
+            policy_turns += 1
+            legal = np.asarray(state.unified_legal_mask(), dtype=bool)
+            info = encode_info_state(state, player, cfg.encoding)
+            with torch.inference_mode():
+                x = torch.as_tensor(info, dtype=torch.float32, device=device).unsqueeze(0)
+                advantages = networks[player](x).squeeze(0).detach().cpu().numpy()
+            selected_action, policy = _select_current_action(
+                advantages,
+                legal,
+                epsilon=cfg.traversal.regret_matching_epsilon,
+                fallback=cfg.regret_matching.all_negative_fallback,
+            )
+            labels = {
+                int(action): _classify_unified_action(state, int(action), player)
+                for action in np.flatnonzero(legal)
+            }
+            open_actions = [action for action, label in labels.items() if label.startswith("open_")]
+            if open_actions:
+                candidate_states += 1
+                first_open_candidates += len(open_actions)
+                selected_buckets[labels[selected_action]] += 1
+                for action in open_actions:
+                    label = labels[action]
+                    buckets[label].add(
+                        float(advantages[action]),
+                        float(policy[action]),
+                        selected=action == selected_action,
+                    )
+                non_open_advantages = [
+                    float(advantages[action])
+                    for action, label in labels.items()
+                    if not label.startswith("open_")
+                ]
+                for value in non_open_advantages:
+                    buckets["non_open"].add(value, 0.0, selected=False)
+            state.apply_action(state.from_unified_action(selected_action))
+
+    iteration = int(torch.load(checkpoint, map_location="cpu").get("iteration", -1))
+    return {
+        "checkpoint": str(checkpoint),
+        "iteration": iteration,
+        "opponent": opponent,
+        "games": games,
+        "policy_turns": policy_turns,
+        "candidate_states": candidate_states,
+        "first_open_candidates": first_open_candidates,
+        "selected_buckets": dict(sorted(selected_buckets.items())),
+        "buckets": {key: value.to_dict() for key, value in sorted(buckets.items())},
+    }
+
+
+def main() -> None:
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__)
+    parser.add_argument("checkpoints", nargs="+", type=Path)
+    parser.add_argument("--opponent", action="append", default=None)
+    parser.add_argument("--games", type=int, default=100)
+    parser.add_argument("--seed", type=int, default=91_000)
+    parser.add_argument("--device", default="cuda")
+    parser.add_argument("--max-steps", type=int, default=10_000)
+    parser.add_argument("--output", type=Path, required=True)
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+
+    opponents = args.opponent or ["safe_heuristic_strict"]
+    args.output.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+    rows = []
+    for checkpoint in args.checkpoints:
+        for opponent in opponents:
+            row = analyze_checkpoint(
+                checkpoint,
+                games=args.games,
+                seed=args.seed,
+                opponent=opponent,
+                device=args.device,
+                max_steps=args.max_steps,
+            )
+            rows.append(row)
+            print(json.dumps(row, sort_keys=True))
+    args.output.write_text("\n".join(json.dumps(row, sort_keys=True) for row in rows) + "\n")
+    print(f"wrote {args.output}")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    main()
diff --git a/src/coolrl_lost_cities/games/classic/deep_cfr/interleaved_traversal.py b/src/coolrl_lost_cities/games/classic/deep_cfr/interleaved_traversal.py
index c9eb456..7b68f73 100644
--- a/src/coolrl_lost_cities/games/classic/deep_cfr/interleaved_traversal.py
+++ b/src/coolrl_lost_cities/games/classic/deep_cfr/interleaved_traversal.py
@@ -106,6 +106,7 @@ class InterleavedTraversalConfig:
     epsilon: float
     outcome_sampling_epsilon: float
     outcome_sampling_value_clip: float | None
+    outcome_unsampled_regret: str
     max_depth: int | None
     max_nodes: int | None
     strategy_sample_interval: int
@@ -384,7 +385,8 @@ class InterleavedContext:
         node_value = float(frame.policy[frame.action]) * sampled_action_value
         if frame.player == self.traverser:
             target = np.zeros(self.cfg.action_size, dtype=np.float32)
-            target[frame.legal_mask] = -node_value
+            if self.cfg.outcome_unsampled_regret == "negative_node_value":
+                target[frame.legal_mask] = -node_value
             target[frame.action] = sampled_action_value - node_value
             self.samples.advantage.append(
                 TrainingSample(
@@ -616,6 +618,7 @@ def run_interleaved_traversal_batch(
     max_nodes: int | None,
     outcome_sampling_epsilon: float,
     outcome_sampling_value_clip: float | None,
+    outcome_unsampled_regret: str,
     opponent_policy: str,
     endpoint_depth_bucket_width: int,
     endpoint_depth_bucket_max: int,
@@ -631,6 +634,7 @@ def run_interleaved_traversal_batch(
         epsilon=epsilon,
         outcome_sampling_epsilon=outcome_sampling_epsilon,
         outcome_sampling_value_clip=outcome_sampling_value_clip,
+        outcome_unsampled_regret=outcome_unsampled_regret,
         max_depth=max_depth,
         max_nodes=max_nodes,
         strategy_sample_interval=strategy_sample_interval,
diff --git a/src/coolrl_lost_cities/games/classic/deep_cfr/trainer.py b/src/coolrl_lost_cities/games/classic/deep_cfr/trainer.py
index c0784e7..b72ec13 100644
--- a/src/coolrl_lost_cities/games/classic/deep_cfr/trainer.py
+++ b/src/coolrl_lost_cities/games/classic/deep_cfr/trainer.py
@@ -444,6 +444,7 @@ class DeepCFRTrainer:
                         outcome_sampling_value_clip=(
                             self.config.traversal.outcome_sampling_value_clip
                         ),
+                        outcome_unsampled_regret=(self.config.traversal.outcome_unsampled_regret),
                         opponent_policy=self.config.traversal.opponent_policy,
                         endpoint_depth_bucket_width=(
                             self.config.traversal.endpoint_depth_bucket_width
diff --git a/src/coolrl_lost_cities/games/classic/deep_cfr/workers.py b/src/coolrl_lost_cities/games/classic/deep_cfr/workers.py
index 08a38ec..cbda874 100644
--- a/src/coolrl_lost_cities/games/classic/deep_cfr/workers.py
+++ b/src/coolrl_lost_cities/games/classic/deep_cfr/workers.py
@@ -186,6 +186,7 @@ def run_traversal_worker_batch(batch: TraversalWorkerBatch) -> TraversalWorkerRe
                     max_nodes=cfg.traversal.max_nodes_per_traversal,
                     outcome_sampling_epsilon=cfg.traversal.outcome_sampling_epsilon,
                     outcome_sampling_value_clip=cfg.traversal.outcome_sampling_value_clip,
+                    outcome_unsampled_regret=cfg.traversal.outcome_unsampled_regret,
                     opponent_policy=cfg.traversal.opponent_policy,
                     endpoint_depth_bucket_width=cfg.traversal.endpoint_depth_bucket_width,
                     endpoint_depth_bucket_max=cfg.traversal.endpoint_depth_bucket_max,
diff --git a/tests/games/classic/test_deep_cfr_trainer.py b/tests/games/classic/test_deep_cfr_trainer.py
index 8db4ae8..c360469 100644
--- a/tests/games/classic/test_deep_cfr_trainer.py
+++ b/tests/games/classic/test_deep_cfr_trainer.py
@@ -459,6 +459,7 @@ def test_deep_cfr_interleaved_scheduler_matches_recursive_single_traversal() ->
                 "opponent_policy": "network",
                 "max_depth": 3,
                 "max_nodes_per_traversal": 64,
+                "outcome_unsampled_regret": "zero",
             },
         }
     )
@@ -522,6 +523,7 @@ def test_deep_cfr_interleaved_scheduler_matches_recursive_single_traversal() ->
             0,
             1,
             **common,
+            outcome_unsampled_regret=config.traversal.outcome_unsampled_regret,
             opponent_policy=config.traversal.opponent_policy,
             interleave_width=4,
             interleave_max_batch=8,
@@ -536,6 +538,10 @@ def test_deep_cfr_interleaved_scheduler_matches_recursive_single_traversal() ->
         [sample.target.sum() for sample in recursive_advantage],
         atol=1.0e-5,
     )
+    for interleaved_sample, recursive_sample in zip(
+        interleaved_advantage, recursive_advantage, strict=True
+    ):
+        assert np.allclose(interleaved_sample.target, recursive_sample.target, atol=1.0e-5)
     assert np.allclose(
         [sample.target.sum() for sample in interleaved_strategy],
         [sample.target.sum() for sample in recursive_strategy],
@@ -619,6 +625,7 @@ def test_deep_cfr_interleaved_scheduler_matches_average_strategy_opponent() -> N
             0,
             1,
             **common,
+            outcome_unsampled_regret=config.traversal.outcome_unsampled_regret,
             opponent_policy=config.traversal.opponent_policy,
             interleave_width=4,
             interleave_max_batch=8,