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coorl-lost-cities/docs/reports/gates-1-2-2026-07-05.md
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Gates 1-2 Report - 2026-07-05

Run dir: /mnt/2tbhdd/coolrl-lost-cities-artifacts/gates-1-2/2026-07-05_094238_gates-1-2. Target: /mnt/2tbhdd/coolrl-lost-cities-artifacts/league/2026-07-05_052325_jax-ppo-league-v1/snapshots/cycle_01_update_000500.

Gate 1A - Policy Class Tournament

Learner Opponent Win rate Mean diff CI low Opened colors Max-step
expert_cap2 expert_cap3 0.4415 -1.8933 -2.3662 1.7792 0.0000
expert_cap2 expert_capN 0.4445 -1.8807 -2.3545 1.7815 0.0000
expert_cap3 expert_capN 0.4840 +0.0285 -0.4689 2.2153 0.0000

Gate 1A - Variants vs League v1

Learner Opponent Win rate Mean diff CI low Opened colors Max-step
expert_cap2 league_v1_update_500 0.2725 -20.8863 -21.9846 1.9735 0.0003
expert_cap3 league_v1_update_500 0.3400 -14.3513 -15.4459 2.7385 0.0000
expert_capN league_v1_update_500 0.3415 -13.9670 -15.0543 3.0040 0.0000

Gate 1B - Delta Open Audit

  • States: 500
  • Paired samples: 32000
  • Mean delta: +0.0138
  • CI95: [-0.3283, +0.3559]
  • Judgment: near_zero
  • Histogram: docs/reports/gates-1-2-delta-open-hist.png

Gate 1C - Selectivity Judgment

통념 기각/미결: capN은 집중 변형보다 유의하게 나쁘지 않고, 리그 정책의 4번째+ 오픈 delta는 0 근처다. selectivity는 현재 주요 성능 병목으로 보이지 않는다.

Gate 2A - Strengthened Exploiter Battery

Exploiter Win rate Mean diff CI low Opened colors Max-step Run
long_random 0.5870 +10.9512 +9.4790 4.9958 0.0000 /mnt/2tbhdd/coolrl-lost-cities-artifacts/gates-1-2/2026-07-05_094238_gates-1-2/exploiters/2026-07-05_094311_gates-1-2-long-random-exploiter
warmstart_gate3 0.5900 +11.3808 +9.8893 4.9945 0.0000 /mnt/2tbhdd/coolrl-lost-cities-artifacts/gates-1-2/2026-07-05_094238_gates-1-2/exploiters/2026-07-05_105902_gates-1-2-warmstart-gate3-exploiter
replay_exploiter 0.5820 +10.4253 +8.9368 4.9977 0.0000 /mnt/2tbhdd/coolrl-lost-cities-artifacts/gates-1-2/2026-07-05_094238_gates-1-2/exploiters/2026-07-05_115602_gates-1-2-replay-exploiter

Gate 2B - Robustness Judgment

보수 필요: worst exploiter warmstart_gate3 win rate 0.5900 vs threshold 0.5500.

Gate 2C - Conditional Repair League

Cycle Worst protocol used Guard pass Battery worst Passed Checkpoint
1 warmstart_gate3 True 0.5490 True /mnt/2tbhdd/coolrl-lost-cities-artifacts/gates-1-2/2026-07-05_094238_gates-1-2/gate2c/league/2026-07-05_125709_jax-ppo-gates-1-2-repair-c01/snapshots/cycle_01_update_000500
Cycle Exploiter Win rate Mean diff CI low Opened colors Max-step
1 long_random 0.5390 +6.2793 +4.7919 4.9943 0.0000
1 warmstart_gate3 0.5490 +7.0285 +5.5662 4.9935 0.0000
1 replay_exploiter 0.5393 +6.1022 +4.6214 4.9943 0.0000

Human Play Recommendation

조건부 예: 강화 exploiter 관문은 통과했다. 다만 selectivity 관문이 미결/부분 지지이면 인간 대전은 실력 인증이 아니라 행동 양식 진단으로 시작해야 한다.

Decisions

  • Existing heuristic_expert remains unchanged. The cap variants add only a hard max_open_colors gate around new-color openings.
  • expert_capN means no hard cap; EV thresholds and the existing soft concentration penalties are retained.
  • Warm-started exploiters use shaping coefficient 0 to measure target-specific exploitation without reintroducing early shaping rewards.