Mechanism-level analysis of the slot_aware_playability iter 240
plateau (opened_colors 4.95+, bad_open_rate 88-92%, calibration
gap 6-9 → 2-4). Captures four expert consultations with diagnostic
hypotheses, intervention catalog (architectural / training-dynamics
/ game-specific), measurement plan, and a comparison table across
the four sources.
Key new directions surfaced:
- Current vs average vs league policy separation (Deep CFR average
strategy is the convergence target, not advantage current).
- All-negative fallback as Deep CFR ablation lever.
- Empirical r̃ partitioning by action class.
- Tabular Lost Cities oracle as a clean test of "is 5-color the
game-theoretic answer or an approximation artifact".
- Entry-gate target defined from traversal counterfactual values
instead of heuristic labels.
ideas.md gets an "Active Research Threads" pointer.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.7
8f6780dd3d