Files
coorl-lost-cities/docs/research/deep-cfr-reproducibility.md
T
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.7 004b913a7b Rename bot family, curate analyze plots, tier evaluation cadence
Three coordinated hygiene changes; none target the diagnosed
selection-bias bottleneck. They make the codebase honestly reflect the
pure-self-play stance and reduce dashboard noise.

Bot rename (drop the unhelpful safe_ prefix; suffixes describe behaviour):
- safe_heuristic_loose -> heuristic_aggressive
- safe_heuristic       -> heuristic_balanced
- safe_heuristic_strict -> heuristic_cautious
- noisy_safe           -> heuristic_noisy
- passive_discard      -> discard_only

Class renames in bots/: SafeHeuristicBot -> HeuristicBot,
SafeHeuristicParams -> HeuristicParams, PassiveDiscardBot -> DiscardOnlyBot,
plus loose/strict parameter constants. Backwards compatibility was dropped
intentionally per user instruction; no aliases. Active configs, docs,
scripts, tests updated. Archive directories (configs/archive,
docs/archive, runs/archive) left intact and may still reference old
names per their read-only policy. The src/.../bots/passive.py module was
renamed to discard_only.py via git mv.

Analyze plot curation (deep_cfr/analyze.py):
- Added analysis_00_core.png as the canonical daily dashboard with 10
  heuristic-free metrics (loss/{advantage,strategy}; vs heuristic_cautious:
  avg_score_diff0, win_rate0, avg_opened_colors, positive_expedition_rate,
  bonus_expedition_rate, score_per_opened_color, policy_entropy; vs random:
  win_rate0).
- Removed analysis_05_open_quality.png (bad/weak/good open rates,
  recoverable score) and analysis_07_calibration.png (calibration gap,
  recoverable mean) - both relied on the heuristic recoverable_score
  classifier already dropped from inputs.
- Removed SELECTIVITY_PLOTS and plot_selectivity (heuristic-laden).
- SUMMARY_EVAL_METRICS no longer includes bad_open_rate or
  calibration_gap.
- PlotSpec gained an opponents allowlist so the new core section can pin
  a specific opponent per panel without restructuring plot_section.

Tiered evaluation cadence (EvaluationConfig):
- Added extended_opponents and extended_eval_every (default 0 = disabled).
- opponents_for_iteration(iteration) returns the core list every
  eval_every and appends extended_opponents (de-duplicated) when
  iteration is also a multiple of extended_eval_every.
- default.yaml now uses 3 core opponents (random, discard_only,
  heuristic_cautious) every 5 iterations and 3 extended opponents
  (heuristic_balanced, heuristic_aggressive, heuristic_noisy) every 50
  iterations. random is the floor sanity. discard_only is the
  zero-pit detector / absolute-score reference (its score is always 0,
  so eval/discard_only/avg_score_diff0 directly equals the model's raw
  average score). heuristic_cautious is the ceiling and the
  archive-comparable benchmark used in the prior diagnostic sections.

Net eval cost reduction: roughly 50% (3 opponents x every 5 iter, plus
6 opponents x every 50 iter, vs the prior 6 x every 5).

Documented in docs/plans/deep-cfr-selectivity.md section 9.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 15:32:55 +09:00

6.4 KiB

Deep CFR Reproducibility

Last verified: 2026-05-08, commit 0f85fa8

Summary

Deep CFR training is deterministic for short single-worker checks, but the default multi-worker traversal path is not bitwise reproducible across repeated runs with the same seed.

The likely source is multiprocessing result ordering, not evaluation. With traversal.num_workers=1, repeated runs matched exactly for core training and evaluation metrics across iterations 1-3. With traversal.num_workers=1, inserting evaluation every iteration did not change the training trajectory.

Evidence

Multi-worker runs diverged despite matching seed and config

Two 512x3 runs used the same resolved training config except for run.experiment_name, run.max_iterations, and evaluation.eval_every:

  • runs/2026-05-08_022808_model-size-512x3
  • runs/2026-05-08_051124_baseline-512x3-2000-dense-eval

They matched on iteration 1 traversal size and memory size, then diverged from iteration 2:

Iteration Metric model-size-512x3 baseline-512x3-2000
1 traversal/nodes 169976 169976
1 memory/advantage 84664 84664
2 traversal/nodes 157664 173489
2 memory/advantage 163292 171205

This divergence happens before either run reaches its first evaluation point in the 200-iteration model-size run, so evaluation frequency does not explain the initial split.

Single-worker repeated runs matched

Two temporary runs used:

  • traversal.num_workers=1
  • run.max_iterations=3
  • evaluation.eval_every=1
  • evaluation.games=20
  • evaluation.opponents=[random,heuristic_cautious]
  • W&B disabled

Runs:

  • runs/tmp/2026-05-08_152357_repro-single-worker-a
  • runs/tmp/2026-05-08_152448_repro-single-worker-b

Core metrics matched exactly:

Iteration traversal/nodes memory/advantage loss/advantage eval/random/win_rate0 eval/heuristic_cautious/win_rate0
1 170822 85096 803.9475702643394 0.75 0.10
2 206225 187987 821.3355012834072 0.50 0.05
3 142128 258823 1089.841465830803 0.50 0.00

Timing counters differed, as expected.

Evaluation did not perturb single-worker training

Two temporary runs compared eval disabled vs. eval every iteration:

  • runs/tmp/2026-05-08_152813_repro-single-worker-no-eval
  • runs/tmp/2026-05-08_152852_repro-single-worker-with-eval

With traversal.num_workers=1, common non-timing, non-eval fields matched exactly across iterations 1-3. Evaluation added eval metrics and wall-clock cost, but did not change:

  • traversal/nodes
  • memory/advantage
  • memory/strategy
  • samples/advantage
  • samples/strategy
  • loss/advantage
  • loss/strategy

Likely Cause

The parallel traversal path processes worker results in completion order. DeepCFRTrainer._run_traversals_parallel waits for FIRST_COMPLETED futures, then immediately adds the completed batch's samples into reservoir memory (src/coolrl_lost_cities/games/classic/deep_cfr/trainer.py:548).

Reservoir insertion is order-sensitive because each sample increments seen, and capacity replacement draws from the trainer RNG (src/coolrl_lost_cities/games/classic/deep_cfr/memory.py:26). Even before capacity is reached, list order affects later sampled batches because memory sampling draws indices from the same RNG (src/coolrl_lost_cities/games/classic/deep_cfr/memory.py:57).

Therefore two runs can share the same seeds and configs but diverge if worker completion order differs due to OS scheduling, process timing, or device timing.

Implications

  • Same seed does not guarantee bitwise reproducibility for default multi-worker Deep CFR training.
  • Short deterministic checks should use traversal.num_workers=1.
  • Multi-worker experiment comparisons should be interpreted as stochastic repeated runs, even when run.seed is identical.
  • Eval frequency is not currently implicated in training trajectory divergence, based on the single-worker eval/no-eval check above.

Proposed Fix

The current implementation target is stronger than same-worker-count stability: worker count should be a performance setting, not an algorithm setting. On the same code/config/seed and same GPU/CUDA stack, traversal.num_workers=1, 4, and 8 should produce the same non-timing metrics.

Implement that by making the logical traversal stream independent of process scheduling:

  1. Assign a stable traversal ID to every traversal, such as (iteration, player, traversal_index).
  2. Derive all traversal-local RNG streams from that traversal ID and a purpose token, not from worker ID, batch ID, or completion order.
  3. Keep a canonical logical traversal list for each iteration. num_workers should only decide how that list is partitioned for execution.
  4. Return samples and stats with their traversal IDs.
  5. Buffer completed futures for an iteration.
  6. Insert advantage_samples and strategy_samples into memory in sorted traversal ID order.
  7. Accumulate stats in the same sorted traversal ID order.
  8. Stabilize interleaved scheduler request/context ordering so ready queue and policy request processing do not depend on set/dict iteration or worker timing.
  9. Enable PyTorch deterministic settings for reproducibility/debug runs: torch.use_deterministic_algorithms(True), torch.backends.cudnn.benchmark = False, torch.backends.cuda.matmul.allow_tf32 = False, and torch.backends.cudnn.allow_tf32 = False.
  10. Re-run the repeated-seed check across traversal.num_workers=1, 4, and 8.
  11. If differences remain, inspect remaining CPU-side ordering and PyTorch operator-level nondeterminism.

This is a larger change than sorting completed worker batches, but it is the right target if same GPU/CUDA runs should remain stable across different CPU machines and different worker counts.

Batch Size Scope

The deterministic target treats traversal and evaluation inference batch sizes as execution details:

  • traversal.interleave_max_batch
  • evaluation.batch_size

Changing these should not change non-timing metrics once traversal IDs, request ordering, and result merge order are stable.

Training mini-batch sizes are different. Changing optimization.advantage_batch_size or optimization.strategy_batch_size changes the gradient estimate and optimizer trajectory, so those values remain ordinary experimental variables. They are not expected to match across runs.