Audit of the Deep CFR information-state encoding identified two tiers of
non-pure features and removed both:
- Tier 3 (judgment): is_bad_open_candidate, open_risk_score,
is_safe_continuation. Same heuristic family used to label bad_open in
evaluation, embedded as model input.
- Tier 2 (projection): recoverable_score_no_bonus,
recoverable_margin_no_bonus, min_needed_to_break_even,
cards_needed_for_bonus, has_bonus_path. Mechanical but assumption-laden
("commit and play all currently-playable cards"). The no_bonus form is
asymmetric: it amplifies the immediate -20 penalty while truncating the
+20 bonus upside, biasing the model toward the same "don't open" basin
the diagnostics already flagged.
Input dim 365 -> 297. DERIVED_PLAYABILITY_PER_COLOR 19 -> 15;
SLOT_AWARE_PLAYABILITY_PER_SLOT 12 -> 6. Test shape assertions updated.
Also adds selectivity diagnostic infrastructure used to reach this point:
- traversal.outcome_unsampled_first_open_prior_alpha config field with
signed-prior overlay on unsampled first-open advantage targets (A1).
- analyze_first_open_counterfactual.py --post-policy to swap the
policy_player rollout policy and isolate selection bias (D1).
- analyze_first_open_followup.py to inspect post-forced-open behavior
(E2): same-color play vs discard counts, other-open rate, terminal
hand composition.
Findings recorded in docs/plans/deep-cfr-selectivity.md sections 3-6.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.7
f63c4b8059