Commit Graph
125 Commits
Author SHA1 Message Date
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.8 9ba5a07a9d Train on matches: match observation, asymmetric critic, both seats, match reward
Phases 2-4 land together because they all rewrite the same rollout, and doing
them in sequence would mean writing it three times.

Observation adds the four things a match policy cannot play without: carry as a
scalar *and* a binned one-hot (round three is a threshold problem -- "win by 41
or lose" plays nothing like "win by 39" -- and the old score_diff divided by
MAX_ABS_SCORE=780, squashing a decisive 50-point lead to 0.06); the round index;
whose turn it is, which the single-round observation never carried even though
the critic is trained on opponent-turn states; and the deck clock, since a round
ends on the last deck draw and players bend that parity by drawing from discard
piles. Live points per colour are split by hand / discard pile / unseen, because
a discard pile is public and recoverable.

The critic is asymmetric: it gets the opponent's hand and the deck in order, on
a separate trunk so none of it can reach the logits. A test pins that down --
perturbing the privileged input leaves the policy logits bit-identical while
moving the value. Deal luck is what makes a match-terminal reward hard to learn
from, and a state-value baseline may condition on anything action-independent.

Both seats now train. Self-play ran one network on both sides and stop_gradiented
the opponent, throwing away half of every game; each ply now emits a transition
per seat, folded into the batch so each seat keeps an independent GAE chain.

Reward is the match: rounds one and two only bank into carry, and round three
pays tanh(total / terminal_scale). Potential shaping on the running total covers
the early sparsity and anneals out.

match_eval adds the two measurements the plan turns on: duplicate match play
(same deals and coins from both seats -- self-play scores exactly 0.500 with zero
mean lead, so the mirroring cancels deal luck exactly) and the carry probe. On an
untrained net the probe is flat: 4.97 expeditions opened at a 60-point deficit
and at a 60-point lead alike. Breaking that flat line is success criterion 1.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01XBQKgvBbxbheiTF1AVy1Sh
2026-07-15 02:23:50 +09:00
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.8 7cd299dd1e Add the classic three-round match layer
Wraps the single-round engine rather than changing it: engine.py is the rules
oracle the TypeScript client is differential-tested against, and the round
itself is unchanged by the match. Only two rules live up here, both from the
Kosmos rulebook -- three rounds decided on the summed total, and "the player who
has more points begins" the next one. That is not alternating, and it is not
what reset_from_order hardcoded, so it takes a first_player argument now.

The rulebook says nothing about an exact tie, so the starter falls back to a
coin flip. A deterministic tie-break would give one seat a standing edge in
symmetric self-play and the agent would learn to steer for it. Round one needs
no special case: carry is (0, 0) there, so the tie branch already yields the
coin, which is exactly the rulebook's arbitrary "oldest player begins".

All randomness -- three deals and three coins -- is drawn in match_reset and
stored in the state, so match_step stays deterministic and needs no PRNG key
threaded through every rollout, eval, and gate body. It also makes a mirrored
match (same deals, seats swapped, same coins) a pure seat relabel, which the
antithetic pairing later depends on.

Tests cover the deck clock (44 deck draws a round, discard draws extend it),
carry banking each round exactly once, the start-player rule across all three
branches, a fair round-one coin, mirror symmetry, and that the running total
does not jump across a round boundary -- the last one matters because potential
shaping will be built on it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01XBQKgvBbxbheiTF1AVy1Sh
2026-07-15 02:05:50 +09:00
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.8 d1c2cf628e Reset envs inside the rollout scan and fix the metrics it breaks
rollout_steps was pinned to MAX_STEPS (400) while a round actually runs
~50 plies, and finished envs were only reset between updates. 83% of every
rollout was spent stepping already-done envs to produce masked-out zeros.
Measured at rollout_steps=400: active steps go 17.3% -> 100%, i.e. 5.8x the
learner actions per update for the same compute.

Resetting in-scan exposes three things that were previously benign:

- compute_gae bootstrapped truncated episodes from zero. That was safe only
  because every episode used to terminate inside the scan; now episodes cross
  the boundary, so thread V(s_T) through.
- rollout_metrics read final_env and summed rewards along the scan axis, both
  of which assume one episode per slot. With several episodes per slot that
  silently produces garbage, so aggregate at done boundaries instead.
- league assignments were redrawn only between updates, which would pin a slot
  to one seat/opponent across every episode in a scan. Redraw them on reset.

Also anneal potential shaping against learner actions rather than padded scan
steps: the old accounting counted the dead steps, so a 5M-step anneal expired
within two updates of 250. Any earlier evidence that shaping does not help was
gathered with it effectively off.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01XBQKgvBbxbheiTF1AVy1Sh
2026-07-15 01:27:02 +09:00
coolguy ef4b9d82b0 Focus project on JAX PPO 2026-07-14 20:09:03 +09:00
coolguy f854d97764 Add match replay and JSONL export 2026-07-12 15:14:24 +09:00
coolguy 7e481ca064 Add polished Lost Cities table GUI 2026-07-12 14:58:59 +09:00
coolguy 3b86f81bf6 Add JAX PPO opponent to classic GUI 2026-07-12 04:14:02 +09:00
coolguy 19560029b5 Add final cycle report and human play CLI 2026-07-06 00:14:24 +09:00
coolguy fa9a1c5286 Add gates 1-2 audit and repair workflow 2026-07-05 17:55:22 +09:00
coolguy 94e9ac1854 Add JAX PPO league self-play v1 2026-07-05 06:33:22 +09:00
coolguy 6037b650f3 Add JAX PPO ladder v2 expert pass 2026-07-05 02:06:22 +09:00
coolguy 7fe0bfdcfe Add JAX PPO ladder verification pass 2026-07-05 00:17:49 +09:00
coolguy 4c0c2e9add Reset finished JAX PPO environments 2026-07-04 22:33:51 +09:00
coolguy 9e27f42f27 Add JAX PPO static-opponent trainer 2026-07-04 22:30:16 +09:00
coolguy 1d7758b7d3 Add JAX Lost Cities rules engine 2026-07-04 19:37:27 +09:00
coolguy cba6caee2f Add mixed-opponent self-play with opponent-aware MCTS
C13/C14 cycles: heuristic-balanced bot plays a configurable fraction of
self-play games (training.mixed_opponent_fraction). Trainee turns are
stored as policy samples; opponent turns are taken by the bot directly
and not stored. When mcts.opponent_aware_search is set, the MCTS tree
also treats the opponent seat as that bot — opponent moves are applied
without expanding into the search tree, and all values are taken from
the traverser's perspective. This was Codex's top recommendation for
breaking the symmetric self-play weak fixed point.

Empirical: opponent-aware mixed self-play does NOT lift win-rate above
BC pretrain (vs heuristic-cautious 100-game eval):
  C13 (mixed=0.5, no KL):     0/100 — catastrophic forgetting
  C14 (mixed=0.2, KL beta=1): 17/100 — preserved BC, no improvement
  BC pretrain baseline:       21/100

Combined with C10-C12 results, BC remains the ceiling under our
compute budget (1 GPU + 50 sims + 768x4 net). Code is left in place as
configurable dials for future runs with more compute.
2026-05-11 20:42:13 +09:00
coolguy b9fc5693a4 Normalize PUCT Q + add mirror-descent policy target
Codex follow-up diagnostics identified two MCTS+training-loop issues that
together cap finetune-from-BC at the heuristic ceiling:

1. PUCT Q is in raw score units (~±100 for value_scale=100), but the
   exploration bonus c_puct * prior * sqrt(N) / (1+n) is on order of 1-10
   for our parameter ranges. Result: a single bad backup pushes q_eff
   well below the bonus floor and that action is effectively never
   visited again. With only 50 sims/move this is catastrophic for the
   policy-improvement operator. Fix: divide q_eff by config.q_scale
   (default 100, configurable) inside _select_action. Backups and value
   targets remain in raw score units; only the selection signal is
   normalized. AlphaZero canonical convention.

2. The current kl_anchor_beta path adds KL(current || ref) directly to
   the loss. That preserves BC but prevents improvement (gradient
   actively pulls policy back to reference). The standard regularized
   policy improvement operator is to mix the target instead:
     pi_target = softmax(alpha * log(pi_mcts) + (1-alpha) * log(pi_ref))
   Anneal alpha from low (rely on BC) to high (rely on MCTS) over
   training. Network learns to follow the regularized target, which
   stays near BC early but lets MCTS-discovered improvements through
   later.

Config additions:
- mcts.q_scale (default 100.0): PUCT Q divisor
- training.md_target_ref_ckpt: reference policy path (alternative to kl_anchor)
- training.md_target_alpha_start / _end / _iters: linear alpha schedule

Both Python mcts.py and Cython mcts.pyx updated; parity test passes.
Tests: 19/19.

Hypothesis: with normalized PUCT the network can actually explore and
exploit prior knowledge competently at 50 sims, and the mirror-descent
target lets self-play improvement happen while BC anchors the trajectory.
This is the operator-side fix that c9 (no anchor, collapsed) and c10/c11
(loss-side KL anchor, preserved-but-stuck) both missed.
2026-05-11 16:31:02 +09:00
coolguy d850070ed4 Add KL anchor to BC reference policy in trainer
Self-play drift fix: regularize loss with KL(current || BC_reference).
Config: training.kl_anchor_ckpt + training.kl_anchor_beta. Loaded once
at trainer init, frozen. KL computed over legal actions only.
Hypothesis: appropriate beta keeps pretrained competence during self-play
finetune, escaping the c9 catastrophic forgetting.
2026-05-11 15:24:14 +09:00
coolguy 9fdfa88b23 Add lost-cities-ismcts pretrain: behavior-clone heuristic into network 2026-05-11 13:36:28 +09:00
coolguy 33c44c708e Add --resume-from for warm-starting training from a checkpoint
Lets c6+ layer new exploration hyperparams on top of c5's learned
value head instead of restarting from random init. Saves ~60min per
cycle while preserving VPE-down trajectory observed in c5.
2026-05-11 10:41:08 +09:00
coolguy 200129d16d Add diagnostic value-head metrics: rmse, target stats
Codex flagged that mcts/value_prediction_error mathematically reconciles
with loss/value (MSE / value_scale^2 = 0.05) but the latter looks healthy
while the former says the value head is far off. To make this clearer in
W&B, expose:

- mcts/value_rmse — sqrt(MSE), in raw score units (interpretable)
- mcts/v_target_abs_mean — magnitude of |v_target|, indicates if game
  outcomes are very lopsided (always negative for a losing agent)
- mcts/v_target_std — spread, low std means targets are saturated to
  one end (e.g., always -100ish)

These let us see whether value head is failing because targets are
unlearnable variance, or just hard-to-predict, or because of saturation
at the value_scale=100 tanh boundary.

Tests: 19/19 passing.
2026-05-11 06:43:50 +09:00
coolguy 8b7ed66ffd Cycle 3 prep: fix search() ignoring parallel_simulations + flip use_rollout_value=false
Codex deep diagnosis surfaced two real issues in our MCTS pipeline:

1. mcts.pyx::search() hardcoded prepare_simulation_batch(state, traverser, 1)
   instead of respecting MctsConfig.parallel_simulations. Standalone evals
   (eval_checkpoint, evaluate_with_mcts sequential path, eval_worker) all
   use this entry point, so all eval-time MCTS was running 1 sim per batch
   regardless of the configured 64. Training was unaffected because it
   goes through interleaved_self_play._run_search_jobs which respects the
   config. Fix uses min(config.parallel_simulations, sims - completed).

2. use_rollout_value defaulted to True (config.py) but was never set in
   the YAML. With this, _expand_with_prior returns the heuristic rollout
   value and discards network_value, so the network value head is trained
   from final game scores but its outputs are never fed back into MCTS
   backups. This explains why mcts/value_prediction_error stays high
   despite training -- learning the value head produces no behavioral
   change because MCTS never reads it.

Now setting use_rollout_value=false in default.yaml so the network value
head closes the loop. Combined with the existing Dirichlet root noise +
heuristic rollout removal, this should give the network's value learning
actual leverage on action selection.

Also: updated test_search_visit_counts_match_with_parallel_simulations
to test the correct invariant (legal-action set match + total visit
count near n_sims) rather than literal visit-count equality, which was
only true under the previous bug.

Tests: 19/19 passing.
2026-05-11 06:42:20 +09:00
coolguy be0c1a8d62 Add training.value_loss_weight (default 1.0) for value loss reweighting
Diagnosis: mcts/value_prediction_error stuck at 300-1000 (RMSE ~22 on score
range ±100), while loss/value stays at 0.05 because the loss divides
prediction and target by value_scale=100 (so MSE / 10000). Net effect: the
value head receives a tiny gradient relative to the policy head's
~1.75 cross-entropy loss, so it never learns to predict score scale well.

This adds a config knob to multiply the normalized value loss without
re-engineering the loss formula. value_loss_weight=50 recovers the raw
MSE magnitude (~2.5 vs policy loss ~1.75), giving the value head
comparable gradient signal.
2026-05-11 06:34:05 +09:00
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.7 f289997c1c Add Dirichlet root noise + standalone eval CLI, fix self-play stall trap
Trap diagnosis: agent learned to stall (avoid opening expeditions, draw
from discard pile to extend deck) until max_steps timeout, then squeak by
on opponents' negative scores. All eval wins were from timeouts; agent
never won a naturally-terminating game. Self-play reinforced this because
timeout games still got a positive value target.

Fixes (no algorithm change, all MCTS hyperparameters or signal shaping):

- Dirichlet noise at root prior (AlphaZero standard, was missing):
  mcts.pyx `_expand_with_prior` takes `is_root` flag; root expansion
  mixes prior with Dirichlet(α). Callers in interleaved_self_play and
  the internal evaluate_and_backup pass `not item.path`.
- Default config strengthens exploration on the 50-sim batched search:
  c_puct 1.5 -> 3.0, virtual_loss_value 1.0 -> 5.0, plus new
  root_dirichlet_alpha=0.3 / root_dirichlet_epsilon=0.25.
- Self-play timeout signal zeroed: `_finalize_context` sets v_target=0
  if context.state is not terminal. Stops the network from learning
  "stall = positive value".

New standalone evaluator:
- `lost-cities-ismcts eval` subcommand (eval_checkpoint.py): loads a
  checkpoint, runs N games per opponent across a parallel pool, reports
  win/score with 95% CIs plus per-game logging via --verbose. Defaults
  cover heuristic-balanced/aggressive/cautious (rollout policy isn't in
  the training-eval opponent list, so this is the natural way to compare
  the trained policy against its rollout target).

Tests (19) still pass; .so rebuilt.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 05:17:32 +09:00
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.7 651175e5bd Add multi-process self-play, eval workers, MCTS Cython port
Key changes for ISMCTS speed and correctness:
- Cython port: HeuristicBot helpers (`heuristic_cy.pyx` + new `.pxd`) and
  ISMCTS searcher (`mcts.pyx`) now run as cdef. Both share a fast
  unified-action path through GameState's C interface to avoid Python
  round-trips on hot rollout/tree-walk paths.
- Multi-process self-play and eval: `workers.py`, `eval_worker.py`,
  `interleaved_self_play.py`, plus trainer wiring with ProcessPoolExecutor
  + spawn context. Eval inside `evaluate.py` is parallel per opponent.
- ISMCTS-specific eval (`evaluate.py`) runs MCTS at decision time so the
  metric matches deploy mode; `evaluation.eval_with_mcts` flag preserves
  backwards-compatible policy-only eval when needed.
- Trainer logs progress per phase (self-play start/done, eval per
  opponent), and value loss is now scaled by `value_scale` so policy and
  value losses sit on comparable magnitudes.
- Compact info-set key (`info_set.py`) using packed-struct format and
  child-key reuse during MCTS descent to cut per-step canonicalization.

Tests: 19 ISMCTS suite passing, including parity (Cython-vs-Python
sequential, batched-vs-sequential visit counts, push/pop round-trip).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-11 02:39:39 +09:00
coolguy 0999d34277 Wire W&B tracking into ISMCTS trainer 2026-05-10 23:13:03 +09:00
coolguy 812dace1e3 Extend analyze.py for ISMCTS metrics
- Loss section: add ISMCTS policy/value twin-axis panel alongside the
  Deep CFR advantage/strategy panel. Both render only when their keys
  exist; the unused side shows "No data".
- Memory Size: add memory/replay alongside memory/advantage and
  memory/strategy.
- New MCTS section (analysis_09_mcts.png): visit-count entropy, value
  prediction error, policy/MCTS KL — three iter-time scalars emitted by
  IsMctsTrainer. Auto-skips on Deep CFR runs (no data).
2026-05-10 23:08:51 +09:00
coolguy 25a3fba53f Use Deep CFR diagnostics for IS-MCTS eval
Wrap AlphaZeroNet with a logits-only view so IS-MCTS training evaluation can call evaluate_strategy_network and emit the same full diagnostic metric set as Deep CFR. Adds root prior capture and per-iteration MCTS entropy, value error, and policy-vs-search KL metrics.

Tests: uv run python -m pytest tests/games/classic/ismcts/ -x; uv run python -m pytest tests/games/classic/test_deep_cfr_trainer.py -x; uv run lost-cities-ismcts train --config configs/ismcts/mini.yaml --set run.experiment_name=ismcts-metrics-smoke --set run.max_iterations=2 --set training.games_per_iter=2
2026-05-10 23:04:05 +09:00
coolguy e69f3165b6 Add SO-ISMCTS mini trainer
Implements a proof-of-concept single-observer IS-MCTS trainer with AlphaZero-style policy/value network, determinization, replay, self-play, CLI configs, and focused tests. Mini acceptance run reaches positive random eval while keeping play_action_rate above the Deep CFR trap threshold.

Tests: uv run python -m pytest tests/games/classic/ismcts/ -x; uv run python -m pytest tests/games/classic/test_deep_cfr_trainer.py -x; uv run lost-cities-ismcts train --config configs/ismcts/mini.yaml
2026-05-10 22:46:22 +09:00
coolguy 7d59398159 Add heuristic_balanced opponent_policy to interleaved scheduler
Mirrors the discard_only plumbing pattern. Uses HeuristicBot() (default
balanced params) and converts the bot's phase-local action to unified via
state.to_unified_action. Recursive (Cython) path was already supported
and is unchanged.

Tests: smoke run + accept/reject validators. All 59 tests pass.
2026-05-10 21:08:12 +09:00
coolguy e3f2423f46 Add discard_only opponent_policy + analyze.py merges
- Plumb discard_only through config validator and interleaved_traversal.
  Bypasses PolicyRequest for opponent nodes, uses DiscardOnlyBot via
  Snapshot. Recursive scheduler explicitly rejected (Cython unchanged).
- analyze.py: merge per-opponent eval plots into multi-line plots, add
  twin y-axis support (PlotSpec.secondary_metrics), per-axes translucent
  legends instead of one global legend, add avg_game_length to GameFlow.
- Tests: discard_only smoke run, validator accept/reject, all 57 pass.
2026-05-10 17:39:00 +09:00
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.7 004b913a7b Rename bot family, curate analyze plots, tier evaluation cadence
Three coordinated hygiene changes; none target the diagnosed
selection-bias bottleneck. They make the codebase honestly reflect the
pure-self-play stance and reduce dashboard noise.

Bot rename (drop the unhelpful safe_ prefix; suffixes describe behaviour):
- safe_heuristic_loose -> heuristic_aggressive
- safe_heuristic       -> heuristic_balanced
- safe_heuristic_strict -> heuristic_cautious
- noisy_safe           -> heuristic_noisy
- passive_discard      -> discard_only

Class renames in bots/: SafeHeuristicBot -> HeuristicBot,
SafeHeuristicParams -> HeuristicParams, PassiveDiscardBot -> DiscardOnlyBot,
plus loose/strict parameter constants. Backwards compatibility was dropped
intentionally per user instruction; no aliases. Active configs, docs,
scripts, tests updated. Archive directories (configs/archive,
docs/archive, runs/archive) left intact and may still reference old
names per their read-only policy. The src/.../bots/passive.py module was
renamed to discard_only.py via git mv.

Analyze plot curation (deep_cfr/analyze.py):
- Added analysis_00_core.png as the canonical daily dashboard with 10
  heuristic-free metrics (loss/{advantage,strategy}; vs heuristic_cautious:
  avg_score_diff0, win_rate0, avg_opened_colors, positive_expedition_rate,
  bonus_expedition_rate, score_per_opened_color, policy_entropy; vs random:
  win_rate0).
- Removed analysis_05_open_quality.png (bad/weak/good open rates,
  recoverable score) and analysis_07_calibration.png (calibration gap,
  recoverable mean) - both relied on the heuristic recoverable_score
  classifier already dropped from inputs.
- Removed SELECTIVITY_PLOTS and plot_selectivity (heuristic-laden).
- SUMMARY_EVAL_METRICS no longer includes bad_open_rate or
  calibration_gap.
- PlotSpec gained an opponents allowlist so the new core section can pin
  a specific opponent per panel without restructuring plot_section.

Tiered evaluation cadence (EvaluationConfig):
- Added extended_opponents and extended_eval_every (default 0 = disabled).
- opponents_for_iteration(iteration) returns the core list every
  eval_every and appends extended_opponents (de-duplicated) when
  iteration is also a multiple of extended_eval_every.
- default.yaml now uses 3 core opponents (random, discard_only,
  heuristic_cautious) every 5 iterations and 3 extended opponents
  (heuristic_balanced, heuristic_aggressive, heuristic_noisy) every 50
  iterations. random is the floor sanity. discard_only is the
  zero-pit detector / absolute-score reference (its score is always 0,
  so eval/discard_only/avg_score_diff0 directly equals the model's raw
  average score). heuristic_cautious is the ceiling and the
  archive-comparable benchmark used in the prior diagnostic sections.

Net eval cost reduction: roughly 50% (3 opponents x every 5 iter, plus
6 opponents x every 50 iter, vs the prior 6 x every 5).

Documented in docs/plans/deep-cfr-selectivity.md section 9.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 15:32:55 +09:00
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.7 0457efdf29 Honour all_negative_fallback in interleaved scheduler; sync default.yaml
The interleaved traversal scheduler's _regret_matching was hard-coded to
spread fallback policy uniformly across legal actions, regardless of the
configured regret_matching.all_negative_fallback. default.yaml has
shipped with all_negative_fallback: argmax_tiebreak since 618d5f8 based
on the 20-iter audit + 1000-iter empirical comparison in
docs/archive/deep-cfr-regret-fallback-audit-2026-05-07.md, but the
default scheduler was switched to interleaved in 09bbe7c, after which
the configured fallback mode silently no-op'd.

_regret_matching now takes fallback_mode and concentrates policy mass on
the lowest-index tied action when "argmax_tiebreak". Tiebreak is
deterministic; the Cython recursive traverser randomises ties using its
per-traverser RNG, which the batched policy does not have. Behaviour
matches the spirit of the recursive path (concentrate on best, do not
dilute uniformly).

Plumbed through BatchedPolicy, InterleavedTraversalConfig,
run_interleaved_traversal_batch, trainer.py, workers.py, and the
analyze_first_open_targets.py caller. Two unit tests added.

Also bumps default.yaml outcome_sampling_epsilon 0.2 -> 0.05. The
200-iter sweep in docs/plans/deep-cfr-selectivity.md section 1 showed
0.05 produced the best short-run safe_heuristic_strict score diff
(-40.01 vs -57.87 for 0.20). Recent experiments already used 0.05; the
default now matches actual experimental practice.

Neither change targets the diagnosed selection-bias bottleneck. They
align config intent with scheduler behaviour and make the default config
reproduce known-best knob settings out of the box.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 15:01:46 +09:00
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.7 b6863b3ba0 Fix ColorSharedNetwork to use real per-color encoding layout
ColorSharedNetwork previously sliced the input vector into n_colors equal
chunks (input_dim // n_colors). The slice boundaries do not align with the
actual encoding layout: adjacent slices contain phase flags, hand slots,
expedition state, scores, etc. mixed together. The "color-shared" encoder
was therefore sharing weights across semantically unrelated chunks, not
across per-color blocks. The single archived run that exercised this path
(2026-05-07_092137_color_shared_attention_1000iter) was killed at iter 41
and produced no eval data, so we have no measurement of whether a real
per-color architecture would help.

Adds compute_lost_cities_color_layout(input_dim) which returns explicit
per-color and common index lists for the standard Lost Cities encoding
(n_colors=5, hand_size=8, n_ranks=9). It recognises input_dim values
171, 219, 249, 297 across derived_playability and slot_aware_playability
flag combinations.

Per-color block (39 dims when derived_playability is on): both players'
expedition state for that color, discard top, public-histogram row,
pending-discard one-hot bit, legal-action draw-pile bit, and the
derived_playability per-color block. Slot-aware features are slot-major
and stay in common.

ColorSharedNetwork.forward now indexes per-color blocks via the layout
when input_dim matches a known schema. For other dims (unit tests,
non-Lost Cities use), it falls back to chunked slicing with a UserWarning
- preserves backward compatibility for tests but makes the legacy
behaviour visible.

No fair test of the new architecture was run as part of this commit.
Documented in docs/plans/deep-cfr-selectivity.md section 7.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 14:42:32 +09:00
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.7 f63c4b8059 Strip heuristic input features and add selectivity diagnostics
Audit of the Deep CFR information-state encoding identified two tiers of
non-pure features and removed both:

- Tier 3 (judgment): is_bad_open_candidate, open_risk_score,
  is_safe_continuation. Same heuristic family used to label bad_open in
  evaluation, embedded as model input.
- Tier 2 (projection): recoverable_score_no_bonus,
  recoverable_margin_no_bonus, min_needed_to_break_even,
  cards_needed_for_bonus, has_bonus_path. Mechanical but assumption-laden
  ("commit and play all currently-playable cards"). The no_bonus form is
  asymmetric: it amplifies the immediate -20 penalty while truncating the
  +20 bonus upside, biasing the model toward the same "don't open" basin
  the diagnostics already flagged.

Input dim 365 -> 297. DERIVED_PLAYABILITY_PER_COLOR 19 -> 15;
SLOT_AWARE_PLAYABILITY_PER_SLOT 12 -> 6. Test shape assertions updated.

Also adds selectivity diagnostic infrastructure used to reach this point:
- traversal.outcome_unsampled_first_open_prior_alpha config field with
  signed-prior overlay on unsampled first-open advantage targets (A1).
- analyze_first_open_counterfactual.py --post-policy to swap the
  policy_player rollout policy and isolate selection bias (D1).
- analyze_first_open_followup.py to inspect post-forced-open behavior
  (E2): same-color play vs discard counts, other-open rate, terminal
  hand composition.

Findings recorded in docs/plans/deep-cfr-selectivity.md sections 3-6.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-10 14:26:16 +09:00
coolguy 8217cecd19 Speed up first-open memory sampling 2026-05-09 23:57:51 +09:00
coolguy c570fc3ea5 Add first-open replay reweighting 2026-05-09 23:46:55 +09:00
coolguy b33a55c76d Align interleaved outcome targets and add open diagnostics 2026-05-08 17:25:27 +09:00
coolguy dd88564b8d Add W&B grouping options 2026-05-08 16:22:52 +09:00
coolguy fe01704b60 Add deterministic Deep CFR traversal mode 2026-05-08 16:09:03 +09:00
coolguyandCodex 102f8cc91d Support average strategy in interleaved traversal
Co-Authored-By: Codex <codex@openai.com>
2026-05-07 23:07:47 +09:00
coolguyandCodex 240ef552c6 Add non-default interleaved traversal scheduler
Co-Authored-By: Codex <codex@openai.com>
2026-05-07 22:49:38 +09:00
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.7 6c9babe769 Validate strategy-memory flags under external sampling
OpenSpiel's Deep CFR records strategy samples at opponent nodes during
the traverser's tree walk; storing on traverser nodes under external
sampling drops the ρ_p reach factor and biases the average-policy
estimate. Reject that config combination at load time and add a research
note deriving why outcome sampling is unaffected while external is not.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 20:56:57 +09:00
coolguy 6c976f468a Wire AMP into Deep CFR trainer behind run.use_amp flag (default off)
Adds torch.autocast(fp16) + GradScaler around _train_advantage and
_train_strategy when run.use_amp=true and device=cuda. CPU/non-CUDA
falls back to fp32 no-op. Mitigations:
- scaler.unscale_(optimizer) before grad_clip.
- nonfinite-loss guard skips overflowing batches and counts them.
- diff.float().square() in advantage loss to avoid fp16 overflow.
- strategy mask/log_softmax kept in fp32.

New metrics: amp/grad_scale, amp/nonfinite_loss_count.

Tests: AMP CUDA smoke + CPU fallback in test_deep_cfr_trainer.py.

Bench: scripts/bench_amp_trainer.py micro-benches train phases under
synthetic replay memory. smoke.yaml result is fp32 3.22ms / AMP 3.92ms
(0.82×, regression). 100-iter A/B on default.yaml deliberately
skipped: smoke regression mirrors the 2026-05-07 torch.compile
regression dynamic (dispatch overhead > kernel benefit at this model
size) and re-confirming on the same size adds no information.

Default stays run.use_amp: false. Re-enable trigger documented in
docs/performance.md: hidden_size >= 1024 or num_layers >= 6, then run
the bench script + 100-iter A/B before flipping default.
2026-05-07 20:21:17 +09:00
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.7 a7ab94e096 Add batched traversal inference server (Option A) behind opt-in flag
Implements the central inference server pattern: a dedicated GPU
process owns advantage/strategy/league networks, batches policy
requests across traversal workers via shared-memory tensor pool, and
returns logits. Workers route forward calls through InferenceClient /
NetworkProxy when traversal.inference_backend == "server".

Default remains traversal.inference_backend: local. The server
backend regresses iter time ~3.8× on the inspected default config
(small-model dispatch + sync-blocking traversal capping realized
batch at ~num_workers=8 instead of the bs=64-256 needed to amortize
IPC overhead). Keeping the implementation behind the flag lets us
re-enable when (a) model size grows, (b) per-worker interleaved
traversal lands, or (c) eval becomes dominant — see
docs/performance.md "Option A Bench Result and Structural Ceiling"
for the full diagnosis.

Plumbing included:
- inference_buffers.py: shared-memory tensor pool with slot
  management.
- inference_client.py: per-worker client + NetworkProxy adapter for
  the existing traversal.pyx call sites.
- inference_server.py: spawn-context server process with
  batch-window aggregation, weight sync, shutdown sentinel.
- bench_inference_backend.py: A/B between local and server backends
  with eval/checkpoint disabled.
- test_inference_server.py: round-trip and integration tests.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 20:05:16 +09:00
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.7 05de0e2a81 Port safe-heuristic bots to Cython with Python reference fallback
Cython implementation in heuristic_cy.pyx achieves ~2.55× speedup on
opponent_act_seconds (200-game eval: 59.20s → 23.24s). Original Python
implementation preserved verbatim in heuristic_py.py as the equivalence
reference. Action-sequence equivalence is verified by
test_safe_heuristic_equivalence.py against seeded game corpora.

Key implementation notes:
- File-local wraparound=True override required for negative discard
  indexing; Cython global wraparound=False would segfault.
- annotation_typing=False preserves verbatim Python semantics.
- _CachedState materializes hands/expeditions/discards/deck once per
  act() call — this is the dominant performance win.

Further C-array optimization of _card_value_for_me /
_card_value_for_opponent / _color_commitment / _bonus_potential is
deferred. The current 2.55× delivers most of the dense-eval future
benefit; further work is gated on actually adopting denser eval
schedules (eval_every=5, games=1000).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 20:03:53 +09:00
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.7 7c7c582c46 Slash-namespace logged metric keys for W&B grouping
Adopt a 5-namespace scheme so wandb groups related metrics in the
sidebar and capture-group regex (eval/(random|safe_heuristic)/win_rate0
vs eval/(?:random|safe_heuristic)/win_rate0) controls panel splitting:

- loss/{advantage,strategy}
- samples/{advantage,strategy,advantage_player_N}
- memory/{advantage,strategy,advantage_player_N}
- time/{iteration_seconds,traversal_seconds,advantage_train_seconds,
  strategy_train_seconds,evaluation_seconds,memory_add_seconds,
  checkpoint_seconds,batch_tensor_seconds,nodes_per_second,
  advantage_player_N_sample_seconds,strategy_sample_seconds}
- traversal/{nodes,terminals,depth_cutoffs,node_limit_cutoffs,
  max_depth_reached,endpoints,avg_endpoint_depth,
  endpoint_depth_bucket_*,regret_fallback_*,sampled_actions}
- eval/<opponent>/<metric> (3-level so opponent can be the capture group)

`iteration` keeps no namespace (it's the wandb step axis). Internal
TraversalStats.to_dict() and benchmark.py's standalone result dict
keep their flat names — only the trainer's emitted metrics are
remapped, with the traversal_*→traversal/* translation done at
insertion into runtime_metrics.

analyze.py updated to read the new keys (PlotSpec metrics, color map,
opponent_names parser, _first_existing_eval lookup). Tests updated for
the new eval_metrics dict keys.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 17:37:41 +09:00
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.7 5aab84c15f Only record evaluation_seconds when eval actually ran
Previously the timer wrapped every call to _evaluate(), but on iterations
that skip eval (iteration % eval_every != 0) the function returns
immediately and the recorded value was just function-call overhead
(~3 µs), which made W&B show a wildly bimodal "evaluation_seconds"
metric. Now only set the key when eval_metrics is non-empty so
non-eval iterations have no data point.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 17:26:12 +09:00
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.7 e6b7a41dc0 Show iters_per_hour estimate in iteration summary
Append a rough iters_per_hour estimate (3600/iteration_seconds) to the
console summary so users running long jobs can eyeball ETA without doing
the math.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 17:12:27 +09:00
coolguyandClaude Opus 4.7 5687435f84 Prefix iteration-scoped log lines with [i=N]
Make traversal progress and iteration-complete summary lines easier to
visually scan during long runs by leading with [i=N]. Drop the redundant
"iteration=N" kv from the body to keep lines short.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-05-07 17:11:34 +09:00